UPDATES ***US Navy (JTWC) / High Potential Cyclone development & heading toward Oman

Due to conflicting reporting in Oman, to see updates for this cyclone and to track with various models see link below and scroll to nilofar:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

Current Satellite : http://wxug.us/1lcul

As of 28 Oct 7pm Omani timing

As of 27 Oct

 Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Click to enlarge

From Muscat Daily /27Oct

“There is nothing to worry about the storm like it was reported a few days ago. Even if it strikes, it will be hardly anything and there will be no destruction,” a Met official said, adding that going by the latest reading, the storm would not last long.

Read more: http://www.muscatdaily.com/Archive/Oman/No-major-threat-from-tropical-storm-Nilofar-yet-Met-dept-3jql#ixzz3HKeirNcG 

OmanNew News  27/Oct

Ferry Shina to Maseera halted from 9am 27Oct - High waves

As of 25 Oct

Follow updates here': http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt

ABIO10 PGTW 242230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/242230Z-251800ZOCT2014//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242151OCT2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 
61.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 61.1E, APPROXIMATELY 730 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF ORGANIZING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A 
WIDE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS SLOWLY BECOMING 
BETTER DEFINED. A 241705Z AMSU-B AND 241837Z TRMM (PARTIAL) 
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS WEAK AND FRAGMENTED BANDING SHOWING 
CONSOLIDATION ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREA WITH SOME 
CONVECTION AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, A 
241758Z PARTIAL ASCAT SHOWS SOME 25 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE 
EXTREME NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN INDIA. MULTIPLE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING 
THIS DISTURBANCE INTO A BROAD TROPICAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE 
NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 242200) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
NNNN

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2014102412/navgem_mslp_pcpn_ind.html

projected path